Sunday was bridge day with lots of children time too

I had a lovely Sunday.  Colin, Luise, Jessica and Marcus slept over.  The kids love a sleepover.  We had pancakes for brunch.  I made some batter and the kids put strawberries, bananas and chocolate chips into custom pancakes.  After that we watched Cloudy With A Chance Of Meatballs.  I have to say that Jessica liked Walt Disney’s Snow White (which we watched the night before) a whole lot better.  Walt Disney had magic.

After the kids left the day was full of bridge.  I pondered systems over 2c_thumb22532.  Do you like playing control showing responses?  I was thinking about inverting 2Copyofd_thumb222422 to show more controls than 2h_thumb222822 because it seems to me that when you have more controls you need more space not less.  Thoughts on this matter are welcome.

Later on I watched the finals of Women’s Canadian curling while I played some bridge.  Fortunately I have a TV mounted right beside my computer.  (Okay maybe my bridge playing was a touch distracted).  It was an exciting final and an interesting display of “fear of winning”.  Going into End 8 out of 10 the Prince Edward Island team had a formidable two point lead with the hammer.  They did badly in eight, nine and ten and eventually lost in an extra end.  It was as if knowing that they would be the first team ever to win a major curling championship from PEI, the pressure was just too much.

Back at my bridge game, this deal provided a bit of a bidding challenge for me.  I held: s_thumb222422 A94 h_thumb222822 Q54 Copyofd_thumb222422 A107 c_thumb22532 KQJ2

I opened 1NT in second chair and partner raised to 4NT.  Is slam worth a go?  I have 16 points right in the middle of the range and the spot in diamonds and spades might be helpful.  The c_thumb22532J is a better card than than some jacks.  But I decided to pass.

It was the 4-3-3-3 shape that did me in.  I was happy I had passed when I saw my partner’s hand.  She had s_thumb222422 J32 h_thumb222822 AJ Copyofd_thumb222422 KQJ c_thumb22532 A9854

6NT is not a good spot.  It does have some play.  If the heart finesse works you might make via a squeeze of some sort.  If my LHO holds the top two spades along with the heart king there is a simple squeeze and it works with or without the count.  You can just run winners or you can lead a spade towards the jack earlier on.

Is 6c_thumb22532 better?  It requires less card reading but it does need the same holdings in the east-west hand.  Best to play in game as we did.  Well done partner.  If she had transferred to clubs and then bid 4NT (as I might have done) we would have been in the poor slam.

Here was one more interesting decision.  Your hand is:

s_thumb222422 3 h_thumb222822 AK7532 Copyofd_thumb222422 Q54 c_thumb22532 KQ43

Your partner opens 1Copyofd_thumb222422 at favorable vulnerable and RHO bid 1s_thumb222422.  You bid 2h_thumb222822 and partner bids 2NT.  Righty isn’t finished; vulnerable or no, he bids 3s_thumb222422.  What do you do?

I think double here should just show a good hand.  You can’t have trump.  You are just setting up a force and letting partner decide.  You could bid 3NT or 4c_thumb22532 but maybe you are better defending.  Let partner decide.  That was the decision of my expert partner and it was a very good one.

I held: s_thumb222422 QJ6 h_thumb222822 J6 Copyofd_thumb222422 KJ1062 c_thumb22532 A102

I wasn’t sure it was the right thing to do but with only one spade stopper I was going to have to run nine tricks in 3NT and I didn’t fancy the 5-2 in hearts (which broke 5-1 not too surprisingly).  3s_thumb222422 doubled only went down one but this was a great result since we could make nothing.

Just after this I had a session with Colin.  Here is another deal in my series bidding slams without Blackwood.  With both side not vulnerable Colin held

s_thumb222422 875 h_thumb222822 AKQJ9 Copyofd_thumb222422 A2 c_thumb22532 K73

He opened 1c_thumb22532 strong and I bid 2NT.  This shows 12-14 HCP, with no suit longer than five cards.  RHO bid 4c_thumb22532, and Colin bid 4h_thumb222822, showing his suit.  He knew that I had a good hand and it was important to get his suit in.   I wouldn’t give up on a suitable hand. I had

s_thumb222422 AQJ h_thumb222822 10653 Copyofd_thumb222422 K943 c_thumb22532 A9

I suppose I could bid 4NT, keycard.  If I do Colin will bid 5Copyofd_thumb222422 (3).  I could bid 5s_thumb222422 which would get 6c_thumb22532.  I could bid 6Copyofd_thumb222422 and Colin would bid 6h_thumb222822 which would end the auction.  There is nothing wrong with this auction. 

But once Colin shows a hand worth 16 points or more and hearts nothing is keeping me from slam.  The bigger issue is should we be in 7.  Would Colin go to the grand with the hand below over keycard?  I don’t think so.

s_thumb222422 87 h_thumb222822 AKQ932 Copyofd_thumb222422 AQ c_thumb22532 K73

What I actually did was bid 5c_thumb22532 over 4h_thumb222822. Colin bid 5Copyofd_thumb222422 and I bid 5s_thumb222422. Colin bid 6c_thumb22532 which was doubled.  I bid 6Copyofd_thumb222422.  Now would Colin have bid 7h_thumb222822 on the hand above?  I pretty well have to have the diamond king, club ace, and the spade king at least.  Do I absolutely have to have the spade ace?  It seems likely.  We will never know the answer.

Colin had to play carefully because the hearts were 4-1 and the long hearts had four clubs (and fortunately also the s_thumb222422K.  A dummy reversal looks attractive (ruffing diamonds in the long hand) but in fact I believe it needs the same things.

Do you like my bid on the next hand or not?

s_thumb222422 97 h_thumb222822 J42 Copyofd_thumb222422 K3 c_thumb22532 AQJ642

Red on white 1Copyofd_thumb222422 was opened in front of me and I bid 2c_thumb22532 which worked out well when we won the auction with 3c_thumb22532.  I know I don’t have much but my bid takes up a lot of space and other excuses.  Here is a second slam hand (I wimped out and bid Blackwood.)  However I think the play is the thing on this board.

We arrived in 6h_thumb222822 after Colin showed five clubs, heart support and stuff.

Colin

s_thumb222422 A4 h_thumb222822 975 Copyofd_thumb222422 KQ4 c_thumb22532 A9864

Me

s_thumb222422 K763 h_thumb222822 AKJ82 Copyofd_thumb222422 A c_thumb22532 K102

The opening lead was the s_thumb222422J.  Maybe the best line is to draw trump.  Suppose I win the spade in dummy and hook the heart.  I can win the return, say a club in hand.  Draw another round of trump and play spades ruffing the third round in dummy.  I can get back to my hand with a diamond and draw the rest of the trump.  If trump behaves decently I can throw my losers on the diamonds, twelve tricks.  If the heart finesse wins I follow the same line but I have extra chances.

What does this line need?  Only one heart loser basically.  If hearts are 3-2 and the finesse loses then I can’t stand spade ruff of the second round or a spade ruff in the third round with the h_thumb22282210. I think any line involving setting up the clubs is just not as good (even though the club spots are nice).

What I actually did was win the spade in hand and start with a high trump from hand.  When the h_thumb22282210 came down on the first round I was much better position for a spade ruff so I stopped drawing trump, cashed the diamond, crossed on a spade, played diamonds pitching my losers, returned on the c_thumb22532K, ruffed a spade and played the h_thumb2228229. LHO, who started with h_thumb222822Qxxx, could only make one trump trick. I still don’t know what the mathematically best line is.  I just know mine worked.  I had the added disadvantage of a kibbitzer (who shall not be named) standing in my office and yelling at me to do the wrong things.  Here is the whole deal and if you have some comments I would be interested.

  s_thumb222422 A4
h_thumb222822 975
Copyofd_thumb222422 KQ4
c_thumb22532 A9864
 
s_thumb222422 Q1085
h_thumb222822 Q643
Copyofd_thumb222422 9872
c_thumb22532 5
  s_thumb222422 J92
h_thumb222822 10
Copyofd_thumb222422
J10653
c_thumb22532 QJ73
  s_thumb222422 K763
h_thumb222822 AKJ82
Copyofd_thumb222422 A
c_thumb22532
K102
 

I had one other hand that Colin announced was Linda proof but it really wasn’t. Here was the hand which I did make (but not without some sweat).

  s_thumb222422 1094
h_thumb222822 QJ98
Copyofd_thumb222422 K10864
c_thumb22532 9
 
     
  s_thumb222422 A5
h_thumb222822 AK102
Copyofd_thumb222422 AJ74
c_thumb22532 KQ5
 

After opening 2NT I arrived in 4h_thumb222822.  I won the opening lead of the s_thumb222422K and tried two rounds of trump with RHO showing out on the second round (won in dummy).  I tried a club from dummy.  RHO won the c_thumb22532K with the c_thumb22532A and played two rounds of spades.

  s_thumb222422 10
h_thumb222822 Q9
Copyofd_thumb222422 K10864
c_thumb22532
 
     
  s_thumb222422
h_thumb222822 K10
Copyofd_thumb222422 AJ74
c_thumb22532 Q5

I ruffed high and drew the remaining trump in two rounds.  Now all I had to do was guess diamonds.  About this point I am thinking couldn’t I have played this hand on a safer line.  Well, if you are going to play like this you better be able to guess well. I don’t really have a count.  I know RHO has four hearts and three spades and some clubs.  I am missing nine clubs so if they split somewhat equally he has three or four of them at least.  I think he is odds on to be short in diamonds.

I played the Copyofd_thumb222422K and both followed (rats).  Now I am thinking diamonds were never bid by our side.  With four trump and a spade sequence how likely is it that you would lead your stiff diamond?  I decided not that likely so I finessed and that was right.  So it was Linda proof and I made five in the end.  Given that I only had to make four maybe its safer to play diamonds earlier!  Perhaps I should duck the opening spade lead, win the continuation, play the two top hearts and then play diamonds finessing.  West can ruff but I still make it.

  s_thumb222422 1094
h_thumb222822 QJ98
Copyofd_thumb222422 K10864
c_thumb22532 9
 
s_thumb222422 KQJ3
h_thumb222822 7654
Copyofd_thumb222422 9
c_thumb22532
A864
  s_thumb222422 8762
h_thumb222822 3
Copyofd_thumb222422 Q32
c_thumb22532 J10732
  s_thumb222422 A5
h_thumb222822 AK102
Copyofd_thumb222422 AJ74
c_thumb22532 KQ5
 

 

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How Bidding Decision Matters

I think there is some luck in bidding and also some judgment.  It seems like you have a lot of choices to make and some times the decisions turn out awfully well.  It is hard to distinguish whether that is luck or skill except over many deals, I suppose.

Here is a few decisions from my session yesterday with Karen.

What do you open this hand white on red in first at imps

s_thumb22242 KJ76432
h_thumb22282 void
Copyofd_thumb22242 Q65
c_thumb2253 A86

pass, 1s_thumb22242, 2s_thumb22242,3s_thumb22242,4s_thumb22242 or 4Copyofd_thumb22242 (if you play Namyats)

I personally like 1s_thumb22242.  You do have some defense and it is possible that playing high numbers of spades is not best.  But I can see 4s_thumb22242 as a choice I suppose.  Maybe the opponents can make lots of hearts and you are certainly making it harder for them to find their spot.  I don’t like 2s_thumb22242 or 3s_thumb22242.  What is your poison?

Anyway, Karen bid 1s_thumb22242 and we had no trouble finding slam.  Actually I probably would have tried for and gotten to slam opposite any number of spades.  My hand was

s_thumb22242 AQ8
h_thumb22282 A53
Copyofd_thumb22242 AJ42
c_thumb2253 KJ10

3s_thumb22242 would have been the hardest to deal with.  I wonder if without discussion 4c_thumb2253 is some sort of slam try in spades?  It probably should be.  My opinion is that anyone who opens 3s_thumb22242 on this hand is not unlucky to miss slam, they deserve to miss slam.

Here is another choice.  First what do you bid on Karen’s hand with

s_thumb22242 A8
h_thumb22282 KJ97
Copyofd_thumb22242 AJ10982
c_thumb2253 K

You are vulnerable against not and it goes 2s_thumb22242 pass 4s_thumb22242 to you?  Do you like double?  If partner passes you are okay with that and if partner pulls to clubs you plan to convert to diamonds.  This is the bid Karen made.  I prefer bidding to passes and I think double is fine.  5Copyofd_thumb22242 seems reasonable to me too.  Anyway this was my decision now

s_thumb22242 5
h_thumb22282 A864
Copyofd_thumb22242 K6532
c_thumb2253 543

I figured that on this auction Karen can’t have a spade stack.  She is doubling on high cards or shape.  We figure to be able to play a red suit contract.  I picked 5Copyofd_thumb22242.  I figured that if she was really short in diamonds she could pull to hearts.  Maybe we were lucky, maybe we had good judgment But 5Copyofd_thumb22242 was a great contract.  I was able to element the black suits and have a 100% contract with a chance for an uptrick by hooking the h_thumb22282J.  6Copyofd_thumb22242 isn’t a terrible contract but it doesn’t make on the lie of the cards.

Some times it seems like you just have a series of these decisions.  They are close decisions and you have to make a choice.  I suppose the really good players based on their experience and talent get them right a lot more than we lesser mortals.

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Playing With Karen

I had a chance to have a game with Karen Cumpstone today. We played a session on BBO with very little discussion. I have found that those are the sessions were you don’t have misunderstandings. You are both being quite careful. Still there were a few auctions to think about. Before any of that I thought this was an interesting position.  Here is the whole hand

 

  Karen  
  s_thumb222[4] QJ1098  
  h_thumb222[4] 98  
  Copyofd_thumb222[4] 752  
West c_thumb225[6] A92 East
s_thumb222[10] AK   s_thumb222[12] 76542
h_thumb222 AKQ74   h_thumb222[6] 10
Copyofd_thumb222 AJ3   Copyofd_thumb222[6] Q1086
c_thumb225[8] K73 Linda c_thumb225[4] Q106
  s_thumb222[14] 3  
  h_thumb222[8] J6532  
  Copyofd_thumb222[8] K94  
  c_thumb225 J854  

The opponents arrived in 3NT after West showed a strong balanced hand with hearts.  Karen led a spade of course.  Declarer tried the Copyofd_thumb222[8]J which was ducked.  He conceded a diamond to me and I got out a small heart which declarer won in hand. 

At this point he had to play the club suit.  Our declarer led a club to the c_thumb225[8]10.  This seems superficially attractive because if he can make two club tricks he doesn’t actually need to reach dummy.  But actually it is still 50-50.  If both are onside all works and if both are offside nothing works.  If the c_thumb225[8]J is onside then the c_thumb225[8]10 works but if the c_thumb225[8]A is onside then he has to rise with the c_thumb225[8]Q since if he guesses wrong he not only will only have one club trick but he won’t be able to get to dummy.

If either of us has the c_thumb225[8]A doubleton and he puts in the c_thumb225[8]10  he can still get to dummy true.  But he gets the same result if either of us has the c_thumb225[8]J of clubs and he puts in the c_thumb225[8]Q,

The presence of a ninth trick in dummy changed the odds in the club suit.  Cool.  Of course he might have led the c_thumb225[8]K from his hand first.  We might make a mistake but in addition if Karen had a doubleton club honor even if she ducked he would see it and know what to do.  That is certainly the best play.

Here was a hand where no discussion played a role.  How do you bid this crazy hand:

 

s_thumb222[4] AKQ73
h_thumb222[8] J
Copyofd_thumb222[4] A
c_thumb225 AKQJ52

 

Red on white Karen opened 2Copyofd_thumb222[4].  I wanted to bid 3c_thumb225 but people play that as all sorts of things.  Would see take it as natural and forcing?  I thought about 6c_thumb225 which would probably work most days.  Anyway I bid 2s_thumb222[4].  This bid makes me wince when I look at it again.  Karen bid 3Copyofd_thumb222[4] and RHO decided to come in with 3h_thumb222[8] no doubt influenced by the vulnerability.  I bid  6c_thumb225.  Now that bid doesn’t make me wince.  Anyway Karen did not have a perfect hand for me and it turned out that both slams needed pretty much the same thing.  Here was her hand:

s_thumb222[4] 85
h_thumb222[8] K9
Copyofd_thumb222[4] Q1087652
c_thumb225 43

Playing in clubs is better because you can try for the remote chance that if spades don’t break that the four spades are with the stiff club.  In any case neither slam was making today.  Thinking about it again I should just have bid 6c_thumb225 right off.  Then I wouldn’t have had to wince and I would have played in the right contract.

It was a lot of fun and Karen was awesome.

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Squeezes everywhere

Our good friend Bill Milgram sent me a squeeze to look at (and classify) that allowed him to make 6C in a high quality game at the bridge club.  Ray commented that his opponents were unlucky that Bill had been the declarer since he was one of few players (maybe the only one) who would have made the contract.  However the defense did err at the beginning of the hand.  So this is a challenge for you.  Would you have made 6c_thumb22?

Here is the hand

Leah (patient wife)
s_thumb22 AK872
h_thumb22 632
Copyofd_thumb22 J10943
 c_thumb22 void

 

Bill
s_thumb22 6
h_thumb22 AJ10
Copyofd_thumb22 7
c_thumb22 AKQJ6532

The spot cards are approximate and I don’t have an auction.  But assume there is no helpful information from the opponents.  The opening lead is the Copyofd_thumb226.  West wins the Copyofd_thumb22K and returns a small diamond which you ruff.  Can you make it from here?

While you are thinking about the hand, the Clyde E. Love practice deals are now available as a free download at www.ebooksbridge.com.  So if you like squeezes enjoy the twenty practice hands which cover a wide range of different types of squeezes and be sure to let me know if you find any mistakes.  People who provide useful input will be acknowledged in updates to the practice deals so this is your chance to be famous.

Back to the Bill’s deal.  It looks to me like both hands guard diamonds.  You have no entries to dummy to ruff anything out.  One possibility is that one hand guards spades and hearts.  Then when you run all the clubs you reach this ending and the victim cannot hold three spades and the KQ of hearts.

Leah (patient wife)
s_thumb22 AK8
h_thumb22 void
Copyofd_thumb22 J
 c_thumb22 void

 

Bill
s_thumb22 6
h_thumb22 AJ10
Copyofd_thumb22 void
c_thumb22 void

 

Is there anything else?  The problem is the entries (non-existent).  If West holds spades and East hold hearts when you run clubs you end up in a similar ending:

  Leah (patient wife)
  s_thumb22 AK8
  h_thumb22 6
  Copyofd_thumb22 J
   c_thumb22 void

 

West  
s_thumb22 QJ10  
h_thumb22 9  
Copyofd_thumb22 Q  
c_thumb22 Bill
  s_thumb22 6
  h_thumb22 AJ10
  Copyofd_thumb22 void
  c_thumb22 3

 

On the last club West still has an idle card and can throw a heart.  Dummy has no useful discard.  The double squeeze does not work.

Is there any other lie of the cards that works?  We need to make West’s life a bit tougher?  You can make the hand if the heart honors are split so long as West holds spades.  This is a double guard squeeze.  Let’s look at the ending since it was the squeeze that existed at the table.

  Leah (patient wife)  
  s_thumb22 AK8  
  h_thumb22 6  
  Copyofd_thumb22 J  
   c_thumb22 void  

 

West   East
s_thumb22 J109   s_thumb22 Q
h_thumb22 Q   h_thumb22 K98
Copyofd_thumb22 Q   Copyofd_thumb22 A
c_thumb22 Bill c_thumb22 void
  s_thumb22 6  
  h_thumb22 AJ10  
  Copyofd_thumb22 void  
  c_thumb22 3  

When Bill led his second last club West was squeezed in three suits.  He had to give up his diamond guard.  Anything else would leave immediate defeat.  Bill throws a spade from dummy and East can discard a spade.  Now Bill cashes spades and arriving at a two card ending.  East is squeezed in hearts and diamonds. 

The nice thing about the hand from declarer’s point of view is that the hand sort of plays itself.  You really don’t have any other choices but to run clubs and when you do both the triple squeeze and double guard squeeze will operates.

The defense did err though.  At trick two when in on the top diamond, East has to damage declarer’s fragile entries.  Either a spade lead or a heart lead will do the trick.  Here is the whole deal:

  Leah (patient wife)  
  s_thumb22 AK872  
  h_thumb22 632  
  Copyofd_thumb22 J10943  
   c_thumb22 void  

 

West   East
s_thumb22 J109543   s_thumb22 Q
h_thumb22 Q7   h_thumb22 K9854
Copyofd_thumb22 Q86   Copyofd_thumb22 AK52
c_thumb22 87 Bill c_thumb22 1094
  s_thumb22 6  
  h_thumb22 AJ10  
  Copyofd_thumb22 7  
  c_thumb22 AKQJ6532
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Those Special Moments

There are a lot of reasons why people like to play bridge. Its a terrific social activity and you belong to a very special group of people. Most of the time its not really about winning, at least for me. There is usually nothing of real importance to win. The best thing is the enjoyment of each deal. Some of them are magic, some even funny or ironic. A few make me sad or angry. (And then there are the times where it is about the winning … )

Anyway here is an example of a tiny special moment or two from a session with a favorite partner last night.  Your hand with everybody vulnerable is:

South – You
s_thumb2 QJ764
h_thumb2 6
Copyofd_thumb2 Q1085
c_thumb2 K52

Partner opens 1Copyofd_thumb2 which could be three and you bid 1s_thumb2.  West with a great BBO name (Red Baron) doubles, partner passes and East bids 2h_thumb2.  I have three choices:

  • pass, prudent or mouselike?
  • 2s_thumb2 I have five but partner has at most two (no support double)
  • 3Copyofd_thumb2.  (at this point she has to have at least four diamonds).

Well I am no mouse so I bid 3Copyofd_thumb2.  West bid 4h_thumb2 and partner doubled.  One of these doubled games had already made (See later).  But I really had no choice but to pass.

I led a small diamond and a ferocious dummy appeared:

RB’s Ferocious Dummy
s_thumb2 AK982
h_thumb2 AJ97
Copyofd_thumb2 2
c_thumb2 AJ10

Partner won the Copyofd_thumb2K and switched to the s_thumb210.   Were we beating this? 

The question was answered in a second.  Declarer led a small heart from dummy and partner won the 10.  That was quite soothing.  Some errors by declarer led to +800.  Declarer held 4-4-4-1 with a stiff spade and the c_thumb2Q as his only high card.  A 3h_thumb2 bid would have been more circumspect by RB but after the 3Copyofd_thumb2 bid perhaps it sounded too competitive for RB.  Some times Snoopy has his day.

I think this hand was satisfying because of the roundness of +800, because some opponents are so very aggressive (that’s what you like to do) and because you survived your own overbidding.

Now here is a hand that was very satisfying for someone (not for me).  You hold

Soon To Be Satisfied Opponent
s_thumb2 432
h_thumb2 AKQ873
Copyofd_thumb2 K97
c_thumb2 10

You are in third chair with nobody vulnerable.  Two passes to you.  What do you do?  What do you do if I am in fourth chair and you want to irritate me?

  1. Pass – the most friendly bid, giving opponents a nice free ride (nobody is this wimpy)
  2. 1h_thumb2.  You have a full opening bid with a good suit.  Partner will know what to do and your bridge teacher will be happy
  3. 2h_thumb2  That will put it to the opponents.  You might some day miss a game but not many days
  4. 1s_thumb2  I only know a few people who would venture into this territory and most of them aren’t of drinking age

At my table the bid was 3h_thumb2, sock it to you.  Do you like that one?    So here I am with

Yours Truly
s_thumb2 KQ985
h_thumb2 4
Copyofd_thumb2 65
c_thumb2 AKJ64

I have played a system at times where I could bid 4c_thumb2 here to show clubs and spades but that was not on the system card with this partner.  I suppose I could pass but (see earlier comment about not being a mouse) I bid 3s_thumb2.  LHO bid 4h_thumb2 and partner doubled.  Should I pull?  Partner probably doesn’t have a heart stack on this auction.  She probably doesn’t have a lot of spades.  She therefore has minors.  5c_thumb2?  Well if you figured that out you would have been right.  5c_thumb2 is likely down one and 4h_thumb2 doubled was gin.  Curse you RB.

Red Baron Victorious
s_thumb2 AJ76
h_thumb2 9652
Copyofd_thumb2 Q4
c_thumb2 Q83
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Do You Want To Be In This Slam- Read At Own Risk

Don’t read on unless you are into rather dull analysis but here goes…

I came on to watch the last board or two of an Icelandic match on BBO.  This rather interesting hand came up.  I have rotated the deal.

North
s_thumb KQ107
h_thumb J87632
Copyofd_thumb AK8
c_thumb -
South
s_thumb J8642
h_thumb A
Copyofd_thumb J
c_thumb AQJ1053

 

Both tables reached 6s_thumb and I can tell you right now it is not a “Bob Hamman” slam.  On the lie of the cards it doesn’t make.  So as declarer struggled we had an abstract discussion about whether it was or was not a 50% slam.  My argument was that it makes almost all the time the c_thumbK is onside and some times if it is offside.  Having played with the hand in Deep Finesse I can tell you that if I put the c_thumbK onside it makes every time double dummy.    That doesn’t mean you will make it all the time.  The trouble with that sort of analysis is that declarer gets to pick one line and he may not always find the one that works.  If declarer had the s_thumb9 he would be better off but if he plays to basically draw trump and take a ruffing finesse in clubs as he line of choice lets see how that works out.

So let’s pick a line and then see how it works on the various breaks.

You win a diamond lead in dummy and you play a high spade.  East wins and returns a heart.  You try the ruffing finesse twice (you can’t stand a 6-1 break most of the time), nobody covers but it works.  You lead a small club and ruff high.  If East follows the c_thumbK is coming down so you can just draw trump and claim.  If East shows out then you do have a guess.  You cross to hand on a red suit ruff and ruff the last club high.  Now you lead a spade from dummy and have to decide whether to play for spades 2-2 or for East to have the s_thumb9.  You have a reasonable amount of information about the hand by this time having played quite a few cards.  Generally the finesse is probably right.

This line requires the c_thumbK onside and works when the clubs are 4-3 and the spades are 3-1 or 2-2 with almost no exceptions.  It works if clubs are 5-2 and spades are 3-1 or 2-2 and the ruffing finesse works except if the s_thumb9 is doubleton or tripleton with the clubs.

This line is obviously less than 50% but it does exclude the chance that the defenders will help out a bit.  A trump lead would help (and a club but that seems very unlikely to impossible).  A heart lead might be a bit helpful as it does allow some play in the heart suit which might work on some distributions.

Can we improve this line?  It might be better to try for some cases where the club king is short offside even if that gives up on some of the hands where the trump break 3-1 in the offside hand.  Is it wise to bring hearts into the mix?  I don’t think so after the diamond lead.

If we change the line so we start with a trump and play a small club when in hand with a heart and then cash a high trump in dummy we have some decent changes when the trump are 2-2 and the c_thumbK is offside doubleton or even in some cases where trumps are 3-1.  Does this bring it back to 50%?  I don’t think so.

With due consideration this contract is less than 50% but close enough that considering the choice of opening lead and possibly less than accurate defense its within spitting distance of that number.

I admit this type of analysis is tricky but it was sort of fun to do.  If anybody wants to take it the next step.  Enjoy!

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Not My Very Best Watching

Commentary on matches on BBO takes some skill to do right.  At least I think it does.  There are different approaches.  One approach is what I would call the macho man .  This person is invariably male and he is there so everyone can appreciate how very well he can see the hand.  Before a bid is made he is calling the result.  His focus is on dummy play and he expects to dominate the chat.  He speaks with disdain at almost anything anyone else has and never admits an error.

Macho man can be a good analyst or a poor one.  He is often talking double dummy.  Poor declarer doesn’t always know how the cards lie.  Macho man always has a reason why declarer should drop the stiff king offside or take an unusual finesse.

Then there is chatty Cathy.  Chatty may be male of female and just is in there to say something anything.  She will repeat exactly how you can find the scores for the match or what the weather is like or just about anything else, occasionally even talking about the game.

Then there is the lawyer.  He will argue with anybody about anything.  Some times he has favorite “opponents”, sorry I mean fellow commentators.  David Bird has one who apparently never ever agrees with anything he says.

In general I am much happier commenting when there are no more than 2 others.  Its hard to have any sort of intelligent discussion otherwise. 

All this being said, I commented on two matches today.  One just for a few deals was very pleasant and interesting.  The second was more of a struggle with just too many people.  I probably wasn’t at my best.  I do have an unfortunate habit of sometimes saying the opposite of what I mean.  He should lead a spade, no I mean heart.  I usually have a chance to correct my error, no harm done.  But not always. I made a pretty serious analytical error on one hand but was helpfully pounced on by one of the other commentators.  Fortunately the bridge was pretty interesting at times in the ten short boards. 

I thought the East-West pair in my room (the OR) clearly had the best of it and the score certainly reflected this.  Even when they made contracts I didn’t always like their approach.  Here is an example.

North had limited his hand to 7 points after his partner opened a strong club.  South showed a strong notrump 15-17.  What would you bid on this hand:

s KJ76
h 10872
Copy of d Q93
c J6

Pass comes to my mind.  Even if I was playing Garbage Stayman where partner is forced to bid his better major I would pass.  Our North bid Stayman and they played in 2NT (as opposed to 1NT at the other table).  Declarer made it by guessing how to play diamonds with A10432 opposite dummy’s J6.  As it was all was very friendly.  So this one got by.

This is an opening lead problem

s AKJ109
h 10742
Copy of d 10752
c -

You overcall 1c with 1s.  Your LHO shows a game force with clubs and checks for a spade stopper.  Your RHO bids 3NT.  RHO has Qxx of spades almost certainly.  Maybe Qxxx.  Do you lay down an honor or do you lead a small one or how about a clever red suit lead?

Actually anything but a small spade works.  The spade gives declarer nine tricks without a club finesse.  On any other lead declarer must take a club finesse to partner and the spade return picks up declarer’s Qxx. 

I would have lead the sA myself and I would not have lead the sJ as did our South.  sJ is really only right if declarer has QXXX and partner has XX and partner doesn’t have two side winners.  Partner could easily have a stiff spade so I see an argument for a red card. 

This is quite a sad hand.  South was the perpetrator of a bridge crime.  I think if you wanted to pick one of the seven deadly sins it would be SLOTH.  Here is the hand.

s QJ43
h K
Copy of d AK1085
c AK8
 
s A1087
h 8632
Copy of d 94
c Q42

North opens 1c and East overcalls 1h.  You double and West bids 2h.  Partner doubles, you bid 2s and partner raises to 4.  The opening lead is the cJ.

How do you play this hand? 

You can see that you have three clubs, two diamonds, three spades in hand (at least).  If you can make a heart ruff or two in dummy there is no problem at all.  An alternative approach is to set up diamonds.  Hearts seems a bit safer.  You win the opening club lead and play a heart.  If you do this you have very little risk.  Our declarer started with trump   Winning the club in dummy to play clubs, he ran the sQ and J.  This won but West showed out on the second round.  He played one round of diamonds both following love and now he changed course and belatedly played the heart.  East won and returned a trump won in hand. 

At this point South has some guessing to do.  One approach is to ruff a heart, cross back on a club, draw the last trump and take five minor suit tricks, four spades, and a heart ruff.  But East is known to be 4-5-?-? with at least one club.  This line will fail if West has only one club.  Is there any line that works on more minor suit distributions?

Let’s say you play the cQ now.  If East shows out he cannot ruff.  Diamonds are 3-3 and you can’t be stopped from setting up diamonds with your clubs as an entry (or a heart ruff).  So let’s say he discards a heart.  Now you play ruff out the diamonds.  Cross to dummy on a club and let East make his trump whenever he wants.  If East shows in I would probably finesse the diamond.  If East wins and returns a trump I win and repeat the finesse.  If East plays hearts now you have to ruff in dummy and decide the distribution.

Anyway, the real mistake on the hand was at trick two.

I am tired and sleepy, time for a nap.

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Cloudy with a chance of …

Ray and I just got back from Vancouver where for once the whole family was together.  He was sick while we were out there and now it is my turn.  So my brain is not only jet lagged but also diseased. 

Ratbert finished going through the Love problems and if my brain cooperates I am going to try to work through the corrections now so the problems should be online in a few days.  The new books came into today and I love my Love.  Its really got a great cover.  If you want a look at it here is the link on Amazon

Love Revised And Beautiful

I have my own author copy to admire.

I was thinking that my next project along with fund raising for Canadian teams, ABTA teacher of the year, ebooks and marketing ,.. would be more software from our current books.  When Luise gets back I will get her to show me how to work with the LIN files.

I have been thinking about the Hall of Fame and I really believe that players should be chosen based on ability as well as results.  I know its hard to evaluate ability but that is why you have selectors.  If it was only on results you could do it with a computer and a spreadsheet.

But, the Hall of Fame I want to see would have players from all over the world.  And I like the idea of having a player category along with say a builder category for people who contributed as great writers, (Terence Reese perhaps, he may be too tainted as a player but he wrote some great books) or administrators.

I did try to play mini-bridge with my older grandsons and they really like playing cards.  I downloaded the BBO client and I am hoping that Cassidy will join me online soon.  He is 10 very bright and really eager.   His seven year old brother Malcolm loves cards too.

So if you see Cassidy99 on BBO say hi to him.

I am taking my cloudy brain to bed now.

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Baseball Hall Of Fame

Judy Wolff has been discussing the issues with what I think of as the American Bridge Hall of Fame.  I say this because the only players in it are Americans.  A few Canadian players are included in different categories but not nominated as players.   As a result the Canadian Bridge Federation will be establishing a Canadian Bridge Hall of Fame and it will be interesting to see how they set up the process.

After reading Judy’s blogs and some emails and some comments I thought I might look at the Baseball Hall of Fame.  To me it is the pinnacle of such ventures.  I have been to Cooperstown more than once and it is well worth the visit.  It goes far beyond honoring the best of baseball.  I love it.

Players can be elected by the Baseball Writer’s Association or by the Veteran’s Committee.  The Veteran’s Committee considers non-players such as managers, umpires or executives as well as players back further in time.  While the writers are focused on players who have retired more recently.

Any writers association members ( for bridge IBPA members) for at least ten years can nominate players.  The players they select must have played in the major leagues 5-20 years before the date of the election.  (For bridge players above 60 and perhaps no more than 90, alive or dead).

The next step is for nominees to go through a screening committee.  The committee consist of 6 writers appointed by the BBWAA (like the IBPA).  There screening committee votes and basically the player must get at least 2 votes.  From zero to 10 candidates are put on the ballet and their are no write-in.  The player must receive 75% of the vote of the writers association membership.

Now here are the criteria used by the screening committee: record, ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contribution to the teams he played on.

The veteran’s committee is comprised of members who are Hall of Famers.  Candidates must have been retired 21 years but otherwise the process is identical (for bridge players alive or dead above 90 perhaps). 

It is a lengthy process but players who make it to the HoF deserve it. 

So what should bridge do?  Some thing along the same lines.  By broaden t

Would this work for bridge?  I think so.  Although perhaps there are not enough reliable members of the IBPA to make it work and others might be added.  Maybe the IBPA isn’t the right body.  What do you think?

I think the idea of having a player category and a builder and administrator category is pretty good.  And hey if you don’t want to include Canadians its okay with me but maybe you should change the name.  But please add the criteria skill to the decision making and don’t make it solely on record.  It is important in baseball where you can be a good player on a bad team and vice versa.  It is important in bridge too. 

Without that criteria you might as well call it the American Bridge Hall of people who won a lot of things.   If you are going that route you don’t really need selectors.  Just get a printout of the players from the US who have won the most events and aren’t currently in the ABHPWWLT.  Its kind of a master point scheme really.  You will need to think about how to fit women and seniors into the ABHPWWLT since they can win a lot of things too in their own events. 

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New Downloads Available

If you are waiting for the Love problems they are delayed a bit.  Colin (alias Ratbert) is reviewing them and he has found some problems with them so we are waiting for him to finish so we can correct them.  It won’t be that long so stay posted.

Bob MacKinnon’s new book Bridge, Probability and Information is available for download now from www.ebooksbridge.com. In his book, Bob explains how information theory can provide some practical answers to bridge problems.  That is, some ideas that will make you a better bridge player.  There will also be free downloads are available to accompany Bob MacKinnon’s book shortly.  The supplemental material is free to everyone, however, it does some times go beyond the ideas in the book so it may not be for everyone.  But if you are interested in seeing how probability changes over time and how knowing vacant spaces (that is the number of cards in a particular hand still not placed in suits) you can make better decisions.  The download on virtual vacant spaces starts out with a diamond lead against declarer’s spade contract.  Can that help to decide which defender has the trump queen?  How does it change the odds?  There are six missing diamonds.  Suppose you can deduce that the diamond lead is from length.  How does that change the probabilities?  I seem to remember somebody once telling me it doesn’t change it because after all the defender had to lead something.  But not so.

I know that I have heard people talk about using a different point count scale and I know that I upgrade aces and kings and downgrade queens and jacks.  Bob shows a mathematicians view of point count.  How do you feel about 6-4-2-1?  Read about Opening Bids On A Different Scale.

Divisions of Sides?  This is a concept that is discussed in Bob’s book where he looks at how suits split between defenders and declarers.  So a 7-7-7-5 division of sides is the most balanced.  That is neither side has a fit of more than seven cards.  What does this mean?  Do you want to play or defend?  Bob talks a bit about this.  But if you read this article you will probably need to peak at the book to fully see how sides affect things and how you can use this concept.

The Clyde Love ebook is also available now.  I am not sure about the problems … so as we say in the office, “more Love to come.”

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