Linda Lee — My personal bridge blog

How North American Teams are doing and predictions …after 14 matches

I haven’t read the Bulletin yet but I am sure it will say something like "it’s down to the wire" and certainly there is still a fair bit to be decided.

Both American teams should easily qualify (likely 2nd in their group).  The two Canadian teams are fighting it out with the Women having more ground to make up than the Open team.  I am still predicting that they will both qualify, optimistic that I am.

Both senior teams will qualify and the US will likely win their group


Germany is well ahead in first spot in this group and should be the winner.  The USA Open team had a disappointing loss to Australia and ended up just slightly above average yesterday.  They have to work tomorrow playing Thailand Indonesia and Lebanon who are having a good tournament.    While they are 17 VP ahead of fifth it isn’t that comfortable since Indonesia is the holder of that fifth spot.  Still the USA will come through and qualify.  Did they have to make it so exciting?

The Canadian open team rocked today.  They did better than my prediction of 41 out of 50, getting 46 VP and moving back to a tie for the fourth qualifying position.  Despite some early hiccups Italy has taken over first place in this division so far ahead of second place Estonia that they would need binoculars to see each other.  After that four teams are closely bunched with Estonia out "ahead" with 248 and Denmark, Canada and France with almost identical scores.  The next four teams down the pack are also still in it.  Whose are the three qualifiers that are going to join Italy in the quarterfinals?

Estonia and Denmark play each other and Denmark also plays Canada which is Canada’s only tough match.  France has to play Italy which will be tough and Ireland which is no "gimme".  Brazil, 4 VP behind Canada has an easy schedule.  In the end if Canada can defeat Denmark and do well on their easy matches they will be in the top 4. 

In group B surprising Israel continues to exceed and have clearly got first place lined up and our planning on who they want to meet in the quarterfinals. 

Group C is in a very exciting race for the top spot with Norway and Poland within a half point of each other.  Either way they will be 1/2 and guess what they finish against each other. 


I predicted 47 out of 50 VP for the Canadian women playing easy matches yesterday and they didn’t disappoint getting 45 VP and moving into ninth place 21 VP behind 5/6 with a score of 227.  This is all well and good but it is still going to be a challenge to make the top five positions.

Going through the table pretty carefully, I think 290 is the bare minimum to make the top 5 (without incredible luck in the finish). Canada must get 63 out of 75 in the last 3 matches an average of 21 VP (more would be better).  Looking ahead they have a good chance to win big in their last 3 matches are against Serbia, Australia and the Philippines.  But 21 VP a match will need some luck as well as some good play.  It can be done and the finish will be thrilling if they make it.  By the way, looking at all the groups the wildcard spot may well go to this group, giving Canada an extra chance if they come in sixth.

The USA is way ahead in second place in their group 35 VP ahead of second place.  They are 17 VP behind group leader, England.  The Americans had slightly the better of it yesterday.  Can they win the group?  Remember Paul Revere?  "The British are coming".  Their first match on Friday will be against England.  A rout of the British will likely put them in first place.  Anything less means the second spot.

In the Women’s Germany has Group C locked up with the Netherlands likely claiming second place. 


The senior teams aren’t that exciting at this point since anyone who has fallen into their teacup is going to qualify.  The USA is still leading their group, a spot they have held since the fourth round and are likely to finish first with one of their two remaining matches against last place Kenya.

In group L Indonesia and Australia are fighting it out for first.  Canada had a mediocre day yesterday and moved back a notch to fourth place.  They have a tough match Friday against group leader Indonesia and they might slip down the table a bit more.


Ray LeeOctober 7th, 2008 at 7:35 pm

I agree with your assessment of the Canadian women’s chances, but not your optimism — they will need 290+ to Q, meaning they have to average 20+ over the last 5 rounds. Not going to happen.

ColinOctober 8th, 2008 at 6:57 pm

It’s not going to happen – they have too many teams to pass and those teams have easy matches too.

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