Luck Wasn’t Onside

Okay I don’t want to tell you that everything bad that happened yesterday was because of luck but it did feel that way in our match against Indonesia.  I thought by and large we had a rather good set but on two hands the opponents arrived in 3NT with a good 6-2 heart fit.  Spades were raised on 3 small and hearts were never bid.  Here is one example. The hand was

	♠ A K 4
	♥ A K 10 8 7 2
	♦ 9 8
	♣ J 6
♠ 10		♠ Q 9 7 5 2
♥ Q 8 3		♥ J 4
♦ K Q 10 7 6 4 3		♦ 5 2
♣ Q 10		♣ K 7 5 4
	♠ J 8 6 3
	♥ 9 5
	♦ A J
	♣ A 9 8 3 2

                           West             North                East                 South

                                                1♥                    Pass                 1♠

                           3♦                 Dbl*                 Pass                 3NT 

                           all pass

                           * Support Double

As you can see with the lucky 7-2 diamond break 3NT is cold while the more normal 4♥ does not make.  Twice in one match!  Ugly. You see what I mean when I say luck is not on our side.

In the match against the US we were also unlucky.  For example one slam requires a 2-2 trump break which works.  However this time we did make a bit of our own misfortune and we were clobbered.  I will give you a few chances to do better.  This is an interesting problem and I wonder what you would do.  Let me know.  I set the conditions of contest.  You are playing 2/1 so 1NT is forcing and over an auction like

1♠-1NT-2♠-3♣  You may still have 5 spades and 3♣ is invitational.  All minor jump shifts are spade raises.

You have

♠ void  ♥ 6 ♦ QJ10754 ♣ QJ10754

Did you notice that even your baby minor spots are the same!  All vulnerable partner opens 1♠ and it goes pass.  Do you bid 1NT?  If you do partner will bid 2♥.  What now?  Think about what will happen after that,  If you bid 3m invitational and partner bids 3NT or 3M what is your plan?

The action that works best on the hand as it turns out is to bid 1NT.  Partner will bid 2♥ and you now have to bid 3♣ which partner will pass.  Did you do all that?

The whole hand is

	♠ A Q J 6 5
	♥ A 10
	♦ A K 9 8 2
	♣ 2
♠ K 8 4 3 2		♠
♥ J 8 7 5		♥ 6
♦ 6 3		♦ Q J 10 7 5 4
♣ A K		♣ Q J 10 7 5 4
	♠ 10 9 7
	♥ K Q 9 4 3 2
	♦
	♣ 9 8 6 3

As you can see you better have guessed to bid clubs and if you bid diamonds and get doubled there as you will you better run to clubs.  What did I do?  I played the coward hand and passed.  Looking back on it I think that I should have bid 1NT because there is at least some chance that things will go right from there.  I think I might have bid diamonds just in case partner bids over it though.

Pamela has just come in so more later.  By the way this place is so inexpensive you need to come here some time.