A fascinating hand

In the third quarter of the semifinal Eric Greco  had this defensive problem at trick one.  Greco was sitting South, not vulnerable versus vulnerable.  West, Stansby opened 2♠ .  Hampson passed and Martel bid 3♠ .  This was passed to Hampson who surprised with a 4♥ bid.  Martel took up the challenge and bid 4♠ .  Greco doubled.  The opening lead was the ♦ 7.  And this was what Greco saw.  What is your defensive plan?

		Martel ♠ AJ72 ♥ Q32 ♦ KQ92 ♣ Q10
	Greco ♠ K6 ♥ K ♦ A10853 ♣ K9762

Greco took a very long time, maybe as much as eight to ten minutes at trick one.  He rose with the ♦ A and returned a diamond playing Hampson for a singleton.  It does seem possible but Hampson is known to have a singleton spade.  It just doesn’t seem all that likely that he has a singleton diamond as well.  He might have bid 4♥ in the first place if he was 7-4-1-1 but then again he might have bid 4♥ even if he was 7-3-2-1 but maybe a bit less likely.  Rising with the ♦ A produces an extra diamond trick for East if Greco has the 76 or 74 doubleton.  The defense actually starts with a spade trick a diamond trick, two heart tricks and a club trick but two discards from the West hand are not enough – unless they are heart discards.  Unfortunately the defense cannot untangle their heart suit at trick two.

To beat the contract you have to duck.  After winning the second round of diamonds with the jack Stansby could play a spade to the ace and throw away his heart losers to make the hand.

Dealer: Vul:	Hampson ♠ 8 ♥ AJ109654 ♦ 76 ♣ J84
Stansby ♠ Q109543 ♥ 87 ♦ J4 ♣ A53		Martel ♠ AJ72 ♥ Q32 ♦ KQ92 ♣ Q10
	Greco ♠ K6 ♥ K ♦ A10853 ♣ K9762

Suppose Greco ducks the diamond.  It appears that Stansby can endplayed Greco by playing the ♠ A and another.  But Greco can cash the ♥K when in on the ♠ K and then the ♦ A.  Now Stansby does get two discards a heart and a club.  But a single club discard is useless.

Is there anyway to work this at trick one.  He can figure out that Stansby likely has six spades and two hearts and either three diamonds and two clubs or two diamonds and three clubs.  If you work it out if Hampson does have a singelton diamond and Stansby has three diamonds and ace little club, you don’t have to rise to beat the hand.  In a way Hampson is ruffing your club trick.  But if Stansby has three diamonds and AJ alone in clubs then you must get the ruff in because you have no club trick.

So what is the most likely holding that Hampson could have do you think he is one – seven – one – four (with xxxx in clubs) or one of the other options.  Getting this one wrong cost a lot of imps but it was no shame and getting it right would have been a candidate for defense of the year.